China able to handle complex trade ties with US

美国一天两张脸，中国都能因应之

（转自环球时报GlobalTimes）

The US Commerce Department announced Wednesday that 37 Chinese companies and schools are listed as "unverified" entities which US companies should treat with caution.

美国商务部10日宣布，将37家中国大陆企业和学校列入美国企业应谨慎对待的“未经核实”实体的危险名单。

Companies engaged in automotive technology, liquid crystal materials, precision optics, electronics, and machine tool production are involved. Schools on the list are the Guangdong University of Technology, Renmin University, Tongji University and two schools in Xi'an, the capital of Northwest China's Shaanxi Province.

入单的包括汽车技术、液晶材料、精密光学、电子、机床生产领域的企业，以及广东工业大学、中国人民大学、上海同济大学以及位于西安的两所学校等。

The list also includes six organizations in Hong Kong as well as a few in the United Arab Emirates and Malaysia. The "unverified" list is often treated as an embargo by suppliers because of the hassle, even if it's not. Hence, its real effect is greater than its legal effect.

名单上还有6家香港机构及阿联酋、马来西亚等少数机构。“未经核实”的实体名单过去人们不太熟悉，据分析这不是个禁运名单，但因为麻烦，有时供应商会把它当作禁运，导致它的实际效果大于法律效果。

This is another new trick of the US to crack down on China's high-technology industry, a manifestation of the US' upgraded radical ideas of decoupling with China in this domain. Certain US elites hold that China has enhanced its modernization capabilities mainly by "stealing" technology from cooperation with the West, especially with the US. They believe decoupling can help contain China's further development.

这是美国打击中国高科技产业的又一新招，反映了在高科技领域同中国“脱钩”的激进主张仍在发酵。一些美国精英认为中国的现代化能力主要是通过与西方、特别是与美国公司的合作“偷来的”，并且相信“脱钩”就能遏制中国接下来的继续发展。

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that same day that China and the US "pretty much agreed on an enforcement mechanism," and that the two sides are working on the establishment of an "enforcement office." His statement was immediately interpreted as a major breakthrough in bilateral trade talks.

同在10日，美国财长姆努钦表示，美中贸易谈判继续取得进展，已基本确定了一个监督未来协议执行的机制，包括双方设立一个执行办公室。这被在第一时间解读为两国经贸谈判突破了一个签署协议的最大障碍。

Which news above represents the trend of China-US economic ties? Many may hesitate facing this question.

上述两个消息哪一个更代表中美经贸关系今后的走势呢？我们相信很多人回答这个问题时都会感到犹豫。

The US is determined to maintain its overwhelming superiority in the high-technology field, but companies in this industry can't survive without an enormous market. China is the US' largest overseas market in industries ranging from aviation to electronics. Once decoupled with China, many US technology-intensive enterprises will lose their driving force. This means the US must expand trade with China.

美国下决心维护本国高科技企业领先的绝对优势，而现代高科技企业离不开庞大市场的滋养。中国是美国从航空到电子技术最大的海外市场，一旦与中国隔绝，美国的很多技术密集型企业就会失去来自市场的很大一块动能。这决定了美国一定会维持与中国扩大贸易的基本态度。

Meanwhile, the US wishes to cut off China's research ability and industrial chain required by technology development by restricting exports of key equipment and technology. In this way, the US can ensure its leadership and China's secondary status. The obvious wishful thinking of the US is somewhat understandable but also naive. It is using a much too simple mind to understand the complex China-US trade cooperation in the 21st century.

与此同时，通过限制对中国关键设备和技术的出口，美方希望瘫痪中国科技进步所需的研发能力和产业链条，将中国困在对美依附性的位置上，从而确保美国绝对领先的地位永不受到挑战。美国扒拉如意算盘的声音很响亮，换位思考一下，这也基本可以理解。但美国想的简单了一些，仿佛用加减乘除的简单算术来计算中美21世纪微积分级别的经贸合作。

China and the US signing a trade agreement is the general trend, but it is unlikely to lead to peaceful and stable trade relations.

中美签署经贸协议看来是大势所趋，但它不太可能成为中美经贸领域风平浪静的转折点。

It is hard to handle such a relationship, but China may lead it to reciprocity. First, China has a powerful industrial capacity and market. It has almost endless potential for exchanging interests with the US. The US can't restrict China's interests in all fields.

驾驭这样的中美经贸关系是很不容易的事情，但中国却有可能把它继续朝着互利共赢的方向引导。这是因为：第一，中国同时具备强大的工业生产能力和市场消化能力，我们与美国进行利益交换的潜力几乎无穷无尽。美方无法做全方位的限制。

Second, the US overestimates the effects of a technological embargo on China. China has a system of technological progress which will easily counteract the embargo through innovation and other ways.

第二，美方大大高估了向中国开展各种技术禁运所能产生的效果。中国的科技进步能力是体系性的，美方禁运所制造的空白在这个体系中很容易被自主创新和其他替代方式消化。

Third, as a new system of production and consumption, globalization has become highly institutional. New motivation is much more powerful than few countries' selfish acts. This is independent from the US' will.

第三，全球化作为新的生产和消费体系已经高度机制化了，不断向这个体系涌来的新动力远远强于少数国家私划自留地所产生的负面作用。这不以美国一方的意志为转移。

China has held its destiny in its own hands. The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2019 but raised its forecast for China, which shows its optimism with China's ability to handle the trade war. China only needs to keep calm and do its best, and a promising future awaits the country.

中国已经将自己国家的命运牢牢掌握在本国的手里，国际货币基金组织下调了2019年世界经济的增长预期，却上调了对中国的同一预期，这是对中国应对中美贸易战能力的乐观评价。中国只需继续保持一颗平常心，尽量做好自己能够把控的每一件事，本段拉力赛的高分就将在前面等着我们。

（编辑：丁诗慧）