（来源：FT中文网）
（2020年2月27日）
Organisers of the world’s biggest sporting events are counting the cost of the coronavirus outbreak, which is threatening the cancellation of this summer’s Olympic Games in Tokyo while disrupting competitions around the world.
全球最大体育赛事的组织者正在计算冠状病毒疫情造成的代价，今年将在东京举办的夏季奥运会可能因疫情取消，同时世界各地的比赛也受到扰乱。
The spread of the virus has led to the postponement of football and rugby fixtures, golf tournaments and motor racing events in Asia and Europe that were due to be held in the coming weeks.
新冠病毒的蔓延导致亚洲和欧洲推迟了原定未来几周举行的足球和橄榄球赛事、高尔夫锦标赛及赛车项目。
Organisers of the world’s biggest sporting events are counting the cost of the coronavirus outbreak, which is threatening the cancellation of this summer’s Olympic Games in Tokyo while disrupting competitions around the world.
全球最大体育赛事的组织者正在计算冠状病毒疫情造成的代价，今年将在东京举办的夏季奥运会可能因疫情取消，同时世界各地的比赛也受到扰乱。
The spread of the virus has led to the postponement of football and rugby fixtures, golf tournaments and motor racing events in Asia and Europe that were due to be held in the coming weeks.
新冠病毒的蔓延导致亚洲和欧洲推迟了原定未来几周举行的足球和橄榄球赛事、高尔夫锦标赛及赛车项目。
“We are still absolutely heading for the games on July 22,” a spokesperson for the International Olympic Committee said on Wednesday, but added the games organisers are monitoring the situation alongside the World Health Organization and authorities in Japan and China before making any firm decisions.
“我们仍坚定不移地准备在7月22日举办奥运会。”国际奥委会(IOC)发言人周三表示，但补充道，在做出任何明确决定前，奥运会组织者正在与世界卫生组织(WHO)及日本和中国当局一起监测局势的变化。
Dick Pound, a senior member of the IOC, said this week the world’s biggest sporting event was more likely to be cancelled than postponed, if health authorities deemed it too dangerous to proceed by late May.
国际奥委会资深委员迪克•庞德(Dick Pound)本周表示，到5月下旬，如果卫生当局认为疫情对于如期举办奥运会过于危险，这一全球最大的体育赛事更有可能被取消，而非延迟。
“If it gets to be something like the Spanish flu,” said Mr Pound, referring to the deadly pandemic early in the 20th century, “at that level of lethality, then everybody’s got to take their medicine”.
“如果情况像西班牙流感一样，”庞德表示；他指的是20世纪初爆发的那场致命流行病。“若达到那种致命程度，那么人人都得‘服药’”。
Economists and analysts in Tokyo said they had been inundated with requests from investors over the past 24 hours to calculate the financial impact on Japan of a postponement or outright cancellation of the summer Olympics.
东京的经济学家和分析师表示，过去24小时，他们接到投资者的大量请求，要求他们计算推迟或取消夏季奥运会将给日本带来的财务影响。
The project has cost Japan $25bn, according to some estimates, and has broken records for corporate support with each of the games’ 15 “Gold” sponsors, including Canon, Mizuho and Nomura, paying $100m for that status.
根据一些估算，日本已为承办本届奥运会耗资250亿美元，并打破了企业赞助纪录，本届夏季奥运会的15家“金牌”赞助商，包括佳能、瑞穗金融、野村证券等企业，每家都支付了1亿美元。
Kiichi Murashima, chief economist at Citi in Tokyo, said cancelling the games would reduce Japan’s quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for the three months to September by 0.2 percentage points, or 0.8 percentage points on an annualised basis.
花旗集团在东京的首席经济学家村岛纪一表示，取消奥运会将使日本截至9月的季度GDP增长率损失0.2个百分点，即在年化基础上损失0.8个百分点。
He based his estimate on the 2m expected inbound tourists for the games not coming to Japan. That theoretical blow would hit a Japanese economy that is deemed at risk of entering technical recession this year.
他的估计基于如下预测，若取消奥运会，日本预计将损失前来观赛的200万入境游客。这在理论上将打击日本经济，日本被认为面临今年陷入技术性衰退的风险。
According to a person familiar with early conversations, officials have begun discussing contingency plans, such as relocating Olympic competitions to multiple locations across the world.
据一位了解初步讨论情况的人士透露，官员们已开始讨论应急预案，比如将奥运会赛事迁至全球多地举办。
The IOC declined to comment.
国际奥委会拒绝置评。
Such a move could protect lucrative broadcasting contracts, particularly in the US, where even a short delay of a few weeks would clash with busy schedules for domestic sports leagues during the autumn.
这类举措能够保护利润丰厚的转播合同，尤其是在美国，在那里，即使短短几周的延迟也会与秋季国内繁忙的赛事日程发生冲突。
Some of the money spent organising large sporting events could be recouped through cancellation insurance. According to data from insurer Beazley, the 2014 football World Cup was covered by $1.25bn of event cancellation insurance, while the 2018 World Cup was insured for $1.5bn. Analysts at Jefferies believe that the Tokyo Olympics could be covered for about $2bn, with an extra $600m to cover hospitality and hotel bookings.
组织大型体育赛事的部分支出可通过赛事取消保险收回。 保险公司比茨利的数据显示，2014年世界杯拥有12.5亿美元的赛事取消保险，而2018年世界杯拥有15亿美元的赛事取消保险。杰富瑞的分析师认为，东京奥运会的赛事取消保险可能约为20亿美元，另有6亿美元保险覆盖餐饮及酒店预订。
“Coronavirus is going to be pretty large for the property and casualty insurance industry,” said Philip Kett, an analyst at Jefferies.
“冠状病毒将给财产和意外伤害保险业带来相当大的损失。”杰富瑞分析师菲利普•凯特表示。
Making claims on the insurance policies is unlikely to be straightforward. The terms and conditions differ from policy to policy, as do the triggers that lead to payouts. In some cases, cancellation because of infectious disease could be excluded.
按照这些保单提出索赔不太可能是直截了当的。条款及条件随具体保单而各有不同，触发赔付的事由也一样。在某些情况下，因传染病导致取消的情况可能被排除。
The IOC has an insurance policy designed to protect its revenues against “force majeure” events, although it has not been tested previously. Other Olympic Games events have only previously been cancelled during world wars.
国际奥委会有一份保单旨在保护其收入免受“不可抗力”事件影响，尽管它从未被用过。以往奥运会仅在世界大战期间被取消。
The spread of coronavirus has forced the postponement of Formula One’s Chinese Grand Prix, the Formula E electric car race in Sanya, on China’s Hainan Island, the World Athletics Indoor Championships in Nanjing, European Tour golf competitions in Malaysia and China, as well as the suspension of football leagues in China, South Korea and Japan.
冠状疫情的蔓延已导致F1中国大奖赛、电动方程式中国海南省三亚站、南京世界田径室内锦标赛、欧洲高尔夫巡回赛马来西亚和中国站延期，以及中国、韩国、日本的足球联赛暂停。
（编辑：王鑫）