Goldman warns coronavirus to dent 2020 global economic growth

高盛：疫情将拖累今年全球经济增长

（来源：FT中文网）

（2020年2月4日）

The latest outbreak of the coronavirus will weigh on global economic growth this year as the effects of controlling the disease spill from China into the rest of the world, Goldman Sachs has forecast.
高盛预测，随着遏制病毒传播措施的影响从中国溢出到世界其他地区，最新爆发的冠状病毒疫情将会拖累今年的全球经济增长。

The US bank estimates a hit of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points to growth of global gross domestic product in 2020 under its baseline scenario, which assumes the rate of infections slows significantly in February and March thanks to an aggressive response from Chinese authorities.
根据这家华尔街银行估测的基线情景（假设由于中国当局的积极应对措施，感染率在2月和3月显著放缓），2020年全球国内生产总值（GDP）增长将受到0.1至0.2个百分点的打击。

Goldman said it now expects the world economy to expand by roughly 3.25 per cent this year, marking a slim pick-up from the 3.1 per cent rate recorded last year.
高盛表示，该行现在预计世界经济今年将增长约3.25%，较去年的3.1%略微加快。

“The near-term impact is quite large,” Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius told clients in a briefing on Monday. “What happens to 2020 as a whole really depends on how quickly the episode is brought under control.”
“短期影响相当大，”高盛首席经济学家哈哲思周一在一份简报中告诉客户。“2020年全年到底会发生什么，真的取决于疫情得到遏制的速度。”

In its more severe scenario, in which the rate of infections does not peak until into the second quarter, Goldman thinks the hit would rise to 0.3 percentage points of GDP.
根据高盛预测的更为严重的情景，感染率要到第二季度才能见顶。在此情景下，该行认为GDP将受到0.3个百分点的打击。

“In that case we have to probably wait until 2021 before we see an acceleration in global growth,” said Mr Hatzius.
“在那种情况下，我们很可能要等到2021年才能看到全球增长加速，”哈哲思表示。

Goldman estimates the vast majority of the damage will happen in the first quarter, with 2 percentage points shaved off global growth at an annualised rate, via a direct hit to the Chinese economy worth one percentage point, and spillover effects trimming a further percentage point.
高盛估计，绝大部分损害将发生在第一季度，按年率计算，它将使全球经济增长受到2个百分点的打击——包括对中国经济1个百分点的直接打击，以及通过溢出效应产生的又1个百分点的打击。

The bank added that this would not all be made up by a subsequent recovery in the rest of the year. “Just because you missed dinner out or a haircut in the first quarter, you wouldn’t necessarily get more of those in the second quarter …there is some lost output,” said Andrew Tilton, the bank’s chief Asia economist.
该行补充说，这些打击将不会全部被今年剩余时间出现的复苏所弥补。“就因为你在第一季度错过了一次外出晚餐或理发，未必意味着你会在第二季度加大这些方面的消费……总会有一些产出损失，”该行亚太区首席经济学家迪安竹表示。

Fears over the impact of the virus have rippled around the world over the past two weeks. Economists and investors have scrambled to try to price the disruption to activity and services in the world’s second-biggest economy, where parts of China are on lockdown and global supply chains have been disrupted.
在过去两周里，对疫情影响的担忧情绪传遍世界各地。经济学家和投资者竞相试图对世界第二大经济体的活动和服务受到的扰乱进行定价；中国部分地区处于交通管制状态，一些全球供应链被打乱。

The impact is already being felt globally: airlines have cancelled routes, stock markets have tumbled and some borders have closed.
由此产生的影响已在全球范围被感受到：航空公司纷纷取消航线、股市暴跌，而某些边界被关闭。

The Goldman economists modelled the global impact of the disease by forecasting reduced Chinese demand for imported goods and lower spending abroad by Chinese tourists. The likely spillover looks far greater than the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or Sars, in 2002-2003 thanks to “the enormous growth of the Chinese economy since then”, Mr Hatzius said.
高盛经济学家们通过预测中国对进口商品需求减少以及中国游客在境外支出减少，来模拟疫情的全球影响。哈哲思表示，此次疫情可能产生的溢出效应看起来会远远大于2002年至2003年的严重急性呼吸系统综合症（非典，英文简称SARS），原因在于“自那以来中国经济的巨大增长”。

Goldman estimates Chinese growth will slow to 5.5 per cent this year, and has downgraded its forecasts for Hong Kong and Thailand, which are exposed to tourism from the country. The economy expanded 6.1 per cent in 2019.
高盛估计今年中国经济增长将放缓至5.5%，并下调了对香港和泰国的预测，因为后两个经济体对中国内地公民出境游的敞口较大。2019年中国经济增长6.1%。

（编辑：王鑫）