'More dominos waiting to fall': Aswath Damodaran warns of trouble ahead in US banking system

纽约大学教授达摩达兰警告：还会有更多美国银行如“多米诺骨牌”般倒下

（来源：人民日报网英语点津）

Days after the third bank collapsed in America, valuation guru Aswath Damodaran on Saturday said that there were more dominos waiting to fall in the country's banking business.

在美国三家银行接连倒闭后，估值大师、纽约大学金融学教授阿斯沃斯·达摩达兰5月6日表示，还会有更多美国银行如“多米诺骨牌”般倒下。

The banking crisis, which began in March with the fall of Silicon Valley Bank, is not over yet as several regional banks are facing the specter of rapid withdrawals and share prices crash. Just days ago, First Republic Bank collapsed and was taken over by JPMorgan.

由3月份硅谷银行倒闭引发的银行业危机尚未结束，几家地区银行正面临大量恐慌性提款和股价暴跌的压力。就在几天前，美国第一共和国银行倒闭，被摩根大通收购。

"I do believe that there are more dominos waiting to fall in the US banking business, with banks that have grown the most in the last few years at the most risk," Damodaran, who is also a Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, said. "But I also believe that unlike 2008, this crisis will be more likely to redistribute wealth across banks than it is to create costs for the rest of us."

达摩达兰表示：“我确实相信，还会有更多美国银行如‘多米诺骨牌’般倒下，过去几年增长最快的银行面临的风险最大。”他认为，与2008年金融危机不同的是，相比于对其他行业的影响，这场危机更可能导致银行业财富重新分配。”

Damodaran said as Silicon Valley, Signature Bank, and First Republic have fallen, the 2023 banking crisis looks like a slow-motion car wreck but without the systemic consequences of prior crises. The professor further said that the market reaction to the current banking crisis has been sanguine, with the overall market not missing a step and the damage restricted to banks - and within banks, more to regional than national banks.

达摩达兰表示，随着硅谷银行、签名银行和第一共和国银行接连倒闭，2023年的银行业危机看起来像是一场慢放的车祸，但与之前的危机相比，未发生系统性后果。他还表示，市场对当前银行业危机的反应是乐观的，影响仅限于银行业，更多的是地区性银行，而不是国家性银行。

He said the conventional wisdom that market cap losses have been greater at smaller versus larger banks does not seem to hold up to scrutiny, since percentage losses have been greatest at the largest banks. Breaking down banks based on deposit growth over the last five years, he said, it was clear that the market cap loss has been greatest at the banks that have seen the most growth in deposits.

他表示，小型银行市值损失比大型银行更大的传统观点似乎经不起推敲，因为大型银行的损失占比最大。根据过去五年的存款增长对银行进行细分，很明显，存款增长最快的银行市值损失最大。

"There will be other dominos that fall, bank concentration (not profitability) will rise, systemic effects will stay small, accounting rules on mark to market will be tightened and regulators will add duration mismatch & deposit stickiness to the rule book," he noted.

他指出：“还会有其他多米诺骨牌倒下，银行集中度（而非盈利能力）将上升，系统性影响将保持较小，以市值计价会计准则将收紧，监管机构将在规则手册中增加期限错配和存款粘性。”

（编辑：何晓玙）